Outlook for production and exports of key Russian commodities to 2020

Oil production in Russia grew by 4.6% to 555.6 million tonnes in 2018, Rosstat reported. Going forward, oil production will be affected by an agreement among OPEC+ countries to increase supply.

Oil production in the forecast period is expected to grow to 562 million tonnes thanks to new fields that have been launched and are scheduled to come on stream, and the stabilization of production at mature fields as a result of the expansion of production drilling and its continued profitability. Oil exports totaled 260.2 million tonnes in 2018 and are expected to remain near this level in the period to 2021.

Exports of oil products totaled 150.1 million tonnes in 2018 and are expected to increase slightly to 152 million tonnes by 2021. The depth of crude refining in Russia continues to lag behind the global level
(89-99%). The current trend of increasing refining depth and simultaneously reducing production and exports of fuel oil is the result of tax measures adopted by the Russian government that are aimed at stimulating production of light oil products. Oil refining is expected to grow to 293.4 million tonnes in 2021 with the launch of new primary refining facilities at domestic refineries.

Coal production grew by 13.3% to a record 432.7 million tonnes in 2018. The export orientation of the coal business is a key factor in the development of Russia’s coal industry. Russian coal exports rose by 10% to 199.5 million tonnes in 2018, with shipments growing both to the Asia-Pacific region and to Atlantic markets. The industry’s prospects for growth are linked foremost to the creation of new coal mining centers, involving development of coal fields in new, undeveloped regions that are promising in terms of mining coal reserves with favourable conditions of occurrence. Coal exports are expected to increase to 209.9 million tonnes by 2021.

Agricultural production is expected to grow 4.9% by 2021 compared to 2018.

Metallurgical production is forecast to grow 7.6% by 2021 compared to 2018.