Russian transport sector trends and outlook to 2021
Considering the situation in the transport sector and forecast growth of industrial production, real disposable household incomes and GDP, the transport sector is expected to see steady growth in the medium term.
Commercial freight shipments grew by 1.6% to 4.221 billion tonnes in 2018. The Forecast for the Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation to 2036 projects that commercial freight turnover will grow by an annual average of 2.7% in 2019-2024. Train and truck haulage, which accounted for a combined 69% in 2018, are expected to continue to dominate.
Shipments by marine transport are to a large degree oriented toward the foreign market (exports/imports), so its performance is very sensitive to changes in the world freight market and the global economy in general.
Cargo shipments by marine transport are expected to gradually increase in the near future thanks to state support for shipbuilding and shipping provided under federal law No. 305-FZ, dated November 7, 2011, “On the Amendment of Selected Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation in Connection with the Implementation of Measures of State Support for Shipbuilding and Shipping,” the construction of new ships and registration of vessels in the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping.
Further development of port capacity will also contribute to make foreign trade logistics more independent on the services of foreign seaports.